Experts suck

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Simple linear models outperform experts in making predictions. Notice that the examples are mostly from the social sciences; it seems they have yet to learn a lesson that hard sciences learned over a hundred years ago. Potential root causes include 

Beware of stories

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The best heuristic I’ve ever heard to make better real-world decisions, just watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoEEDKwzNBw A link to Tyler’s blog is on the right…

Humans walk in circles

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http://kottke.org/11/01/the-natural-curves-of-human-movement I learned about this before from the Herzog film Encounters at the End of the World (recommended) where they show how in a blizzard it is very difficult to navigate since without visual cues humans will walk in circles. 

No More Bananas and GMO

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From the New Yorker 1/10/2011: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/01/10/110110fa_fact_peed The banana variety known as the Cavendish makes up 97% of exports and is pretty much the only one consumed in the US and Europe. Until the 60s, the hardier, sweeter and larger Gros 

Being Present

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Let me make a prediction about you. You are always thinking about something. When you’re eating, walking, exercising and partying, your mind is constantly racing as you replay the past and plan for the future. Tell me I’m wrong. Seriously, 

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