Month: March 2020

There are two variables to watch when predicting a trend: its velocity and acceleration. The hard part is knowing which one is more important at any given time.

I have a personal tendency to focus too much on acceleration — how quickly the rate of change is increasing or decreasing. This is great for predicting something early on that may have outsized consequences. Kind of like we’re experiencing now. But beware: it can be very noisy — you don’t have much predictive power.

Paying attention to the current velocity is typically more useful.

“What happened recently? We’ll probably see more of that going forward.”

Online shopping has been growing for decades, and will probably continue to grow in popularity for another decade or two. These big secular shifts are all around us, staring us in the face. It’s easy to overthink it.

I think COVID-19 is “probably like the flu”, and simultaneously I am in favor of taking drastic action to control its spread. Precaution is warranted here.

This raises a question: When should we be concerned about a future threat?

Bryan Johnson has a fantastic tweet hypothesizing why COVID-19 caught the world by surprise:

Number three is tricky. How do we know something may go exponential? As a first approximation, we can study history. We know many diseases spread exponentially.

The precautionary principle states that we should use excessive caution when dealing with something new. We can’t always be this careful — it would be impractical. However, when all three conditions listed above are met, it seems wise to be cautious.

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.” – Richard Feynman

The easiest way to fool yourself is with memory. We tend to paint our past selves in a generous light.

There’s a way to stop letting your memory trick you: keep a decision journal. Every time I make a big decision, I write down my reasoning. One way is to write an email to yourself and snooze it for the future.

A recent entry of mine:

“Deploying 25% of my cash here into US stocks — especially sectors beat up over COVID. This doesn’t feel like the start of a recession, but I’m not willing to go all-in on that.”

Today is a perfect day to start. You may be making some big decisions right now with your health or finances. Choosing not to act is also a decision. It’s often the right one, but you can leave that analysis to your future self.

Do you start each day feeling motivated? Are you working towards a goal you’re physically excited about? If not, you may be lacking a captivating vision.

“Vision” sounds like consultant-corporate-mumbo-jumbo. It’s actually a simple and useful tool. A good vision is an outcome that:
(1) you can picture (a vision!)
(2) excites you

If you can’t picture what you’re working towards, it’s not a vision.
If it’s not an outcome you’re excited about, it’s not good. That’s it.

Good vision: We’re going to build a colony on Mars.
Bad vision: We’re going to promote excellence and be the best company in our industry.

This doesn’t just apply to companies. If you’re not excited about your life, you may be lacking a captivating vision for yourself. Fix it now.

Your gut is often wrong. But it’s also often right. Unfortunately, being right isn’t good enough.

I find my gut is correct more often than not. And yet, if I fail to convince others, the signal is wasted.

“Something about this project feels off.”

It’s OK to trust your gut in these situations. The problem is, other people — your team, your stakeholders, your boss — won’t necessarily understand. They don’t feel what you feel.

That’s on you. Embracing your feeling is a good first step. The second one is even more important: communicate why you feel a particular way. Only when others understand your why can they be as motivated as you are.

“I feel anxious about this deadline, let’s face the possibility that we may not ship in time.”

The greatest leaders will trust their gut. And also get others feeling the same way.