There are two variables to watch when predicting a trend: its velocity and acceleration. The hard part is knowing which one is more important at any given time.
I have a personal tendency to focus too much on acceleration — how quickly the rate of change is increasing or decreasing. This is great for predicting something early on that may have outsized consequences. Kind of like we’re experiencing now. But beware: it can be very noisy — you don’t have much predictive power.
Paying attention to the current velocity is typically more useful.
“What happened recently? We’ll probably see more of that going forward.”
Online shopping has been growing for decades, and will probably continue to grow in popularity for another decade or two. These big secular shifts are all around us, staring us in the face. It’s easy to overthink it.
